Monday, November 6, 2017


 In Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defense Planning Richard K. Betts studied the element of surprise in combat operations and concluded: 4 Increments of forces provide an arithmetical advantage, but the effects of shock are geometrical. Surprise is a force multiplier . . . the combat capability of the side achieving surprise was--on the average--almost doubled. (1,5) Surprise alone is not enough to defeat the enemy. We must have a viable and sustainable plan In order to succeed in battle.

 Major Muhammad Nagi Khan, writing in The Owl (Pakistan) asserts ". . . that without good generalship we may only succeed in astonishing the enemy rather than surprising him." (17,100) Surprise is one of the seven Soviet principles of military art. The Soviets view surprise as a series of offensive, unexpected actions that will alter the correlation of forces in favor of the attacker. (27,5) They define surprise as "unexpected actions at all levels against an adversary". (27,6) The essence of deception is "to attain rapid and complete victory by surprising the enemy, thereby inflicting heavy enemy losses and minimizing friendly force attritiour." (27,9)